WHEN people ask me how I think the war will pan out I respond by asking, ‘Which war?’
This is because it is not one just war but three that is going on in the Persian Gulf and its neighbouring areas.
There is the genuine article – the shooting war between Iraq and the American-led ‘coalition of the willing’. Then there is the noisy war of words between Britain (backed by Spain and some others) and ‘old Europe’ comprising largely the Franco-German combines.
Both these wars have received their fair share of media coverage. But the least reported, yet potentially the most interesting, conflict is the silent war of emotion waged by the Arab street, on the one hand, and the men who rule it, on the other.
Both US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have tried to project democracy as one of their war aims. None of the sultans, sheiks and emirs who back the coalition forces have dissented.
Yet, which Arab state can boast of a democratically elected government? And the contrast between the stated intention and the actual reality is so jarring that the average Arab simply laughs away anything the American President may say.
This is one strange war. The fact is that among the elite in the region there is no sympathy for Saddam.
But they have no faith in the declared aims of the United States, and if democracy is actually the ultimate goal, then it cannot be confined only to Iraq. It must be there in all the Arab states.
The problem is that all the regimes in that part of the globe are being pulled every which way.
Is secularism, too, a goal to be pursued? If so, the dilemma is that most Arab governments are already being condemned as not Islamic enough by fundamentalist groups. The last thing they can afford to do is to try and ‘secularise’ society.
And if a dose of democracy is what is required, what becomes of their powers? Even the so-called republics are little more than glorified monarchies.
The uncomfortable fact is that whether it is democracy that is used as the yardstick, or secularism, Iraq is far from being the worst in the Arab world.
The lack of democratic outlets has led the Arab street to lionise Saddam Hussein.
There is no leader of the opposition to support if you happen to oppose the local regime. This makes the dictator of Baghdad the natural focus of most groups who feel frustrated with their own government.
If you exclude Kuwait – which suffered at his hands 12 years ago – and Iran – which is not an Arab state anyway – the Iraqi President would probably win any popularity contest in any country in this part of the world.
There is nobody else in the region with any democratic credentials to challenge the dictator.
CHRISTOPHER MADEIRA
Everton Park, Qld
